College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: ‘All the Money is Coming in On Texas’

The college football world was wishing for a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matches underwhelmed, providing a lot of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 against the spread, consisting of 3 fairly non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public don’t appear to believe so. At least in two cases.

Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been an especially popular pick with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to overall dollars since Monday .

“All the money is coming in on Texas,” Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text to The Athletic. “We require Arizona State to cover +13.5.”

The interest for the Longhorns encompasses the futures market as well. Remember that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win everything at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.

Interestingly, the Longhorns’ challenger, Arizona State – the greatest underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matchups – is getting the most enjoy from sharp gamblers. The Athletic spoke to a number of bookmakers who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State – which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas – to push the line to -12.5 or -12.

John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a “really highly regarded player.”

Despite the fact that highly regarded money has can be found in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public bettors are piling on Texas.

“We would like to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book,” Magee included.

While the Texas video game will be big for the books, it isn’t the only video game in the area. We talked with multiple bookmakers to break down where the wagering action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State

This game opened Penn State -10.5 at a lot of sportsbooks and has crept up a little to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively split at the majority of sportsbooks. The overall dollars wagered varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the second most popular CFP wager in regards to total tickets at BetMGM books.

“We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. “I would not be shocked if this line sneaks up a bit more before kickoff, however I presently invite any Boise State money.”

Ohio State got the Oregon second chance it wanted. Are the Buckeyes all set for vengeance?

No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon

Perhaps most unexpected to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These groups met back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home canine.

So why is OSU preferred?

Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked to before the CFP first round had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also shaped his opening line.

Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending upon the sportsbook) in this video game before respected cash pushed it to the current line of -2.5. A a little greater majority of wagers at several sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near to 60% of the cash has come in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the 4 come kickoff.

“We did take some respected cash at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it’s remained,” Gable stated. “It’s decent two-way action at that number today. The overall has increased 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the greatest relocation of any of the overalls. Money has actually all been on the over up until now.

Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that deals with sharp bettors, told The Athletic that “Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and instantly our Ohio bettors thought we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has been increased to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55.”

He did note, however, that the book had seen considerable buyback at the present line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.

GO DEEPER

The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff’s 2nd round

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)

The favorite flipped in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.

What triggered the line turn? Put simply, the sports betting action.

Despite the fact that Georgia’s beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.

Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars bet), and it has been “one-way traffic on Georgia,” according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.